Some useful definitions:
fickle adjective 2. liable to sudden unpredictable change; “erratic behavior”; “fickle weather”; “mercurial twists of temperament”; “a quicksilver character, cool and willful at one moment, utterly fragile the next”
balance noun 1. a state of equilibrium or equipoise; equal distribution of weight, amount, etc.
fickle balance 1+2. a state of equilibrium liable to sudden unpredictable change; “fickle balance”; “a quicksilver strategy, strong and unbeatable and one moment, utterly fragile the next”
Metagame: the strategic analysis of a single strategy, or the most commonly played strategies in any given region of the country, in the hopes of creating a strategy that will be more likely to beat strategies of the original type when played in a tournament environment.
One of the most debated and controversial issues in the Warcraft III scene, is that of balance.
We humans have an irresistible urge to categorize everything that we see. In order to understand new data that we come across more readily, we put these pieces of information in boxes with fitting labels. In this way, we build a vast library in our brains concerning all topics, especially those topics that we are concerned with most in our daily life. For many of us, a game has become part of our routine and often these games require us to study and learn great amounts in order to advance. By organizing the information in our head, we create new neural pathways in our brain for actions we do repeatedly. Calling upon our memories and skills for certain actions will go increasingly faster as we repeat these actions more often. Hence the saying, ‘practice makes perfect’.
We are intent on creating ranks for everyone and everything. I myself have noticed that the majority of people have a strong desire to know at any given point, all year round, exactly who are the top 10 players for each race and which Country produces the best players.
Last but not least, we are obsessed with finding out which race is the strongest and which is the weakest. Game balance comes in to play in our community when people attempt to use facts based on balance to produce a ranking of the races, which they at heart feel most comfortable with.
If Rick’s favorite player is the Undead user FoV then it is unlikely that Rick will be willing to accept arguments that support Undead being the strongest race. This is because FoV’s accomplishments will appear far more convincing to Rick if Undead was the weakest race. FoV would lay a spanking despite the shortcomings of his race, which would then be all the more impressive to fans. Some spectators take this one step further by also attempting to convince everyone else that FoV is constantly fighting against the odds because Undead is the weakest race. However, this attempt is most likely futile as usual (since everyone plays a different race and has different favorite players); it would be good to remember the basic motivation that people crusade against each other on forums.
People are very good at deluding themselves to obtain peace of mind. We do this when faced with concepts we aren’t comfortable with. For example, believing in resurrection to help us accept death is similar in a lot of ways to believing that orc is imbalanced so that we may accept loss, without being forced to admit that the other player is more skilled. Personally I have no problem allowing people their reasons so that they may find peace of mind, so long as people don’t mistake these arguments for irrefutable proof of their claims.
The greatest wisdom can be found by considering all points of view before coming to a conclusion. Which strategy is balanced and which is imbalanced? It seems there is an opinion for every grain of sand in the Sahara Desert and like the sand; they are blown away just as easily with every gust of wind. Indeed, I find that the balance in Warcraft III can be viewed just so: waves ripple through the community with a fresh wind every few weeks and completely shatter our previous suppositions. Those people that stick with their earlier conclusions find themselves outnumbered by the ones who ride the wave, unless their mind stays unchanged until the next wave when a strategy becomes imbalanced – for the second time.
A good example of this wave theory is the Druids of the Talons strategy. It was early 2005 when Moon had chills of despair running down the spine of every Orc player with his unbeatable DotT strategy. Those who did not have the misfortune of meeting the father of the DotT strategy Mr. Moon, would meet one of his many followers attempting to replicate his strategy, and with great success. Orcs were helpless for a year, or longer, against the DotT’s, winning only when the Orc apparently out skilled the Night elf by a huge margin. With no new patch at all, there was a sudden shift of power. A new wave rippled across the WarCraft III community, not because the balance had changed, but the balance as we perceive it.
Was it not after I defeated Moon 3 to 1 in WEG Masters (on Night elf biased maps, no less) that it seemed the DotT strategy had lost its once dominant appeal? It was shortly before the WEG Masters semi finals that players had begun to pick up on playing Druids of the Claw instead. This was a notion that would become all the more attractive after the conclusion of WEG Masters. Orcs were starting to counter DotT strategies all across battle.net, now claiming ‘it’s not hard to play against’, and ‘bears are much more difficult’.
I find that the balance of confidence is often a large influence on the outcome of matches. Don’t be overconfident, but have a firm resolve and believe that you can win as long as you play it right. The confidence of all Orcs increased after I beat Moon in China.
The confidence of Orcs would once again decrease after the figureheads of the race start to lose matches yet again (you’d be surprised how quickly this wildfire of despair spreads if you haven’t seen it!). It is certainly no boost to the morale when I watch Satiini or Satiini clones defeat Lyn 2 – 0 again and again or how Zacard tries to hold his own with the mass of experienced Chinese Night Elves.
Some players become desperate when their fellow race users start to lose; to them it seems impossible to win.
It was only a matter of time before a talented and hard working Night Elf player would pick up the DotT strategy again and play it so effectively that it would create a new shift in the meta-game.
HoT has started playing DotT’s again, not like Moon once had – but a new way. With subtle nuances he has reshaped the strategy just as so many other players reshape existing strategies time and time again. In the end it’s not about an arbitrary truth of how the balance really is. It is in fact a constant shift and waves of the meta-game which has players always trying to stay one step ahead of everyone else.
Many people ask me how to make it to the top. The most important thing is not to get carried away on the waves, on waves of opinions of other people. Only your own opinions matters when you are determining your own luck.
The first step is to get to know your equipment well, your utensils and all the hotkeys of the game.
Secondly you must follow the example set by others, so that you understand the meta-game. Thirdly you must be stubborn, because being on the top means not being just another sheep in the flock.
Lastly I’d like to mention that the real challenge is not the climb to the top, but staying on top once you are there. This is not a static position, but an ever-moving one.
It doesn’t get any easier once you are there.
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